Ek Tha Tiger First Weekend Lives upto Initial Expectations at Boxoffice

Ek Tha Tiger's First 5 day Extended Weekend is going to come around 93 cr Mark.

Our Pre-Release expectations were around 86 cr for this particular 5 day period.

Though we took around a 3200 print release format and eventually the film released on 3300 prints.

So, the Movie has lived upto the pre release expectations.

Last Year's Biggest Grosser Bodyguard did 85 cr Nett in 5 day weekend.

Another good thing going in favor of Ek Tha Tiger is that tomorrow(Monday) is a national holiday, so expect another bountiful day.

Our whole 9 day Extended week prediction is at 125 cr Nett. Lets see how close the movie eventually gets to that.

Pre Release Prediction :

http://boxofficekings.blogspot.com/2012/07/ek-tha-tiger-boxoffice-prediction.html

Ek Tha Tiger Budget and Ancillary Revenue

Total Cost of Ek Tha Tiger to YRF = 90 cr

Satellite Rights = 45 cr

Other Rights = 5 cr

Amitabh Bachchan's Golden Run 1973-1988

There might be an never-ending debate on how perhaps the Movie business has changed in the last 30 odd years. Actors are doing increasingly lesser movies(though this trend started in the 2000′s only),increase in other mediums of entertainment, and so on.

On the other hand there have been booms too for the industry with Music(in 90′s) , Sattellite/Cable(2000′s) providing a very good avenue for Movie Revenue thus helping a lot in the movie’s recovery.

Also can be said that modes of promotions has also increased by leaps and bounds.But leaving the above behind, and going movie to movie, Amitabh Bachchan hit an extreme purple patch for almost 15-16 years between 1973-88.

The Innings is interesting for the amount of movies done and the success rate achieved.Infact of the 63 movies Bachchan did in that period only 7 movies faced monetary losses of any kinds, thus a loss making movie used to an Event for Amitabh Bachchan.

Also, Amitabh Bachchan had atleast 1 hit a year for 14 straight years(1973-86).

Take a look.

Film Year Gross(where available) Classification
1 Zanjeer 1973 5,00,00,000 AAA*
2 Bandhe Haath 1973 – Flop
3 Abhimaaan 1973 – A
4 Namak Haraam 1973 – BB
5 Kasauti 1974 – B
6 Benaam 1974 – B
7 Majboor 1974 – AA*
8 Roti Kapada Aur Makaan 1974 12,50,00,000 AAA*
9 Deewar 1975 6,50,00,000 A11*
10 Zameer 1975 – Flop
11 Mili 1975 – B
12 Sholay 1975 30,00,00,000 A111*
13 Faraar 1975 – Flop
14 Chupke Chupke 1975 – AA
15 Hera Pheri 1976 5,00,00,000 A1*
16 Kabhi Kabhi 1976 – AA
17 Adalat 1976 – AA*
18 Do Anjaane 1976 – A
19 Amar Akbar Abthony 1977 9,00,00,000 AAA*
20 Khoon Pasina 1977 5,00,00,000 A1*
21 Alaap 1977 – Flop
22 Parvarish 1977 6,50,00,000 A11*
23 Imaan Dharam 1977 – Flop
24 Ganga Ki Saugandh 1978 – AA*
25 Kasme Vaade 1978 5,00,00,000 A1*
26 Besharam 1978 – BB
27 Trishul 1978 7,00,00,000 A11*
28 Don 1978 6,00,00,000 A1*
29 Muqaddar Ka Sikander 1978 10,00,00,000 AAA*
30 The Great Gambler 1979 – B
31 Jurmana 1979 – Flop
32 Mr Natwarlal 1979 7,00,00,000 A1*
33 Kala Pathar 1979 – BB
34 Manzil 1979 – B
35 Suhaag 1979 7,00,00,000 A1*
36 Do Aur Do Paanch 1980 – A
37 Dostana 1980 7,00,00,000 A1*
38 Ram Balraam 1980 7,00,00,000 AA*
39 Shaan 1980 7,00,00,000 A*
40 Naseeb 1981 10,00,00,000 A1*
41 Barsaat Ki Ek Raat 1981 – AA*
42 Lawaaris 1981 9,00,00,000 A11*
43 Silsila 1981 – Flop
44 Yaraana 1981 7,00,00,000 A1*
45 Kaalia 1981 – AA*
46 Satte Pe Satta 1982 – AA*
47 Bemisaal 1982 – B
48 Desh Premee 1982 – A
49 Namak Halaal 1982 8,00,00,000 A11*
50 Khudaar 1982 7,00,00,000 A1*
51 Shakti 1982 – B
52 Nastik 1983 BB
53 Andha Kanoon 1983 9,00,00,000 A11*
54 Mahaan 1983 – B
55 Pukar 1983 – B
56 Coolie 1983 11,00,00,000 A11*
57 Inquilaab 1984 – B
58 Sharaabi 1984 6,00,00,000 AA*
59 Geraftaar 1985 – AA*
60 Mard 1985 8,00,00,000 A1*
61 Aakhree Raasta 1986 7,50,00,000 A1*
62 Shahenshah 1988 7,00,00,000 AA*
63 Ganga Jamuna Saraswati 1988 – B
Classifications
A111-All Time Blockbuster
AAA-Blockbuster
A11-Super Hit
A1-Super Hit/Hit
AA-Hit
A-Semi Hit
BB-Above Average
B-Average
*denotes equal universal success

SUCCESS RATIO-88.8%

36 ALL INDIA HITS(From 1973-88)

For Fairness purpose its important to highlight the not so successfull periods of Bachchan’s Career.

1969-72

This Period is the start of the Career of Big B, he mostly struggled around for few years before breaking big time in Zanjeer. The notable movies of this time are Saat Hindustani, Anand and Bombay to Goa.

1 Saat Hindustani 1969 – Flop
2 Anand 1970 – AA
3 Reshma Aur Shera 1971 – Flop
4 Pyar Ki Kahani 1971 – Flop
5 Parwana 1971 – Flop
6 Bombay To Goa 1971 – BB
7 Bansi Birju 1972 – Flop
8 Ek Nazar 1972 – Flop
9 Sanjog 1972 – Flop
10 Raaste Ka Pathar 1972 – Flop
 
1989-92

This Period Signifies the return of Big B from the political Arena back to movie business, again here he didnt find the same success as he did in this prime. Notable movies are Agneepath,Hum and Aaj Ka Arjun.

1 Toofan 1989 – B
2 Jaadugar 1989 – Flop
3 Main Azaad Hoon 1989 – Flop
4 Agneepath 1990 – B
5 Aaj Ka Arjun 1990 7,00,00,000 AA*
6 Hum 1991 8,00,00,000 AA*
7 Ajooba 1991 – Flop
8 Indrajeet 1991 – Flop
9 Akayla 1991 – Flop
10 Khuda Gawah 1992 – B
11 Insaaniyat 1994 – B

Since 1997 Amitabh Bachchan has starred and been successfull in uncountable number of movies, though most have been in character role capacity thus cant be counted(in this context that is), though he has again had Pivotal roles in movies like Paa,Black,Cheeni Kum and Khakee but such movies wont be 10% of his movies since 2000 and definitely dont echo back at the glorious run of 1973-88.

Raj Kapoor Success Record

1949

Andaz - Blockbuster

Barsaat - Blockbuster (Top Grosser)

1950

Dastaan - Hit

Sargam - Semi Hit

1951

Awaara - Blockbuster (Top Grosser)

1952

Anhonee - Hit

1953

-

1954

Boot Polish - Semi Hit

1955

Shree 420 - Blockbuster (Top Grosser)

1956

Chori Chori - Hit

1957

-

1958

Phir Subah Hogi - Hit

Parvarish - Semi Hit

1959

Anaari - Super Hit

1960

Jis Desh Mein Ganga Behti Hai - Hit

Chhalia - Above Average

1961

Nazrara - Average

1962

-

1963

Dil Hi Toh Hai - Below Average

1964

Sangam - Blockbuster (Top Grosser)

Dulha Dulhan - Above Average

Sunil Dutt Success Record

1956 

Ek Hi Raasta - Hit

1957

Mother India - All Time Grosser

1958

Sadhna - Hit

1959

-

1960

Hum Hindustani - Above Average

1961

Chhaya - Average

1962

Main Chup Rahungi - Above Average

1963

Gumrah - Hit

Mujhe Jeene Do - Semi Hit

Aaj Aur Kal - Average

1964

Woh Kaun Thi - Hit

Beti Bete - Semi Hit

1965

Waqt - Blockbuster

Khandaan - Hit

1966

Mera Saaya - Super Hit

1967

Hamraaz - Super Hit

Meherbaan - Hit

Milan - Hit

1968

Sadhu Aur Shaitan - Semi Hit

Padosan - Hit

1969

Chirag - Above Average

1970

Bhai Bhai - Above Average

Shammi Kapoor "Rebel Star" Success Record

1957 

Tumsa Nahi Dekha - Hit

1958 

-

1959

Dil Deke Dekho - Hit

1960

Singapore - Semi Hit

College Girl - Average

1961

Junglee - Superhit

Boyfriend - Below Average

1962

Professor - Hit

Dil Tera Diwana - Hit

China Town - Hit

1963

Bluffmaster - Average

1964

Rajkumar - Hit

Kashmir ki Kali - Hit

1965

Janwar - Hit

1966

Teesri Manzil - Hit

1967

An Evening in Paris - Hit

1968

Brahmachari - Hit

1969

Prince - Hit

Tumse Achha Kaun Hai - Average

1970

-

1971 

Andaz - Hit

Ek Tha Tiger First Day Boxoffice Projection

Manoj "Mr Bharat" Kumar Success Record

Manoj Kumar remains one of the most selective stars ever in BW... working only in 27 odd movies between 1965-1981 including 4 Top Grossing movies.

1965

Himalay Ki God Mien - Super Hit

Shaheed - Hit

1966

Do Badan - Hit

Sawan Ki Ghata - Semi Hit

1967

Upkar - Blockbuster (Top Grosser)

Patthar Ke Sanam - Hit

1968

Neel Kamal - Hit

Aadmi - Above Average

1969

Sajan - Hit

1970

Purab Aur Paschim - Hit

Pehchan - Semi Hit

1971

Balidaan - Average

1972

Beimaan - Hit

1973

No Movie

1974

Roti Kapda Aur Makaan - Blockbuster (Top Grosser)

1975

Sanyasi - Blockbuster

1976

Dus Numbri - Blockbuster (Top Grosser)

1977-1980

Only 2 movies....

1981

Kranti - Blockbuster (Top Grosser).

Very Few movies after this.

Stars with Back to Back Top Grossers of Year

Only 5 Stars till date have had back to back top grossers of year, with Amitabh Bachchan having 3 back to back top grossers of year from 1977-79. Salman Khan can also do this if one of Ek Tha Tiger or Dabangg 2 ends up highest grossing movie of 2012...


Dilip Kumar 

1947 - Jugnu
1948 - Shaheed

1960 - Mughal E Azam
1961 - Ganga Jamuna

Rajendra Kumar

1963 - Mere Mehboob
1964 - Sangam

Amitabh Bachchan

1974 - Roti Kapda aur Makaan
1975 - Sholay

1977 - Amar Akbar Anthony
1978 - Muqaddar Ka Sikandar
1979 - Suhaag

Aamir Khan

2008 - Ghajini
2009 - 3 Idiots

Salman Khan*

2010 - Dabangg
2011 - Bodyguard
2012 -

Rajendra "Jubilee" Kumar Success Phase

From Early to Mid-Late 60's Rajendra "Jubilee" Kumar hit a purple patch at the Boxoffice which led him to dislodge the "Big 3" - Dilip Kumar, Raj Kapoor and Dev Anand from the Top(Along with "Rebel Star" Shammi Kapoor and Sunil Dutt).

Eventually Kumar was himself left behind by the Rajesh Khanna magic from late 60's Onwards....

1959 

Dhool Ka Phool - Hit

Goonj Uthi Shehnai - Hit

Chirag Kahan Roshni Kahan - Above Average

1960

-

1961

Gharana - Hit

Aas Ka Panchi - Hit

Sasural - Hit

1962

No Films

1963

Mere Mehboob - Blockbuster (Top Grosser)

Dil Ek Mandir - Hit

1964 

Sangam - Blockbuster (Top Grosser)

Ayee Milan Ki Bela - Super Hit

Zindagi - Hit

1965

Arzoo - Super Hit

1966

Suraj - Super Hit

1967

-

1968 

Saathi - Average

Dilip Kumar's 15 years on Top Record

Dilip Kumar only did 35 films between 1944-1961...

1947 

Jugnu - Hit (Top Grosser)

1948

Shaheed - Superhit (Top Grosser)

Mela - Hit

Nadiya Ke Paar- Semi Hit

1949 

Andaz - Blockbuster

Shabnam - Hit

1950

Babul - Hit

Jogan - Hit

Arzoo - Semi Hit

1951 

Deedar - Hit

1952 

Aan - Superhit (All Time Grosser)

Daag - Hit

Sangdil - Above Average

1953

Footpath - Semi Hit

1954

-

1955

Azaad - Superhit

Udan Khatola - Hit

Insaaniyat - Semi Hit

Devdas - Average

1956

-

1957 

Naya Daur - Blockbuster(All Time Grosser)

Musafir - Above Average

1958

Madhumati - Blockbuster(Top Grosser)

Yahudi - Hit

1959 

Paigham - Superhit

1960

Mughal E Azam - All Time Grosser

Kohinoor - Hit

1961

Ganga Jamuna - Blockbuster

Ek Tha Tiger Overseas Boxoffice Expectations

Theatrical Business Verdict System De-mystified.

1. Its a Exhibition based model :

Exhibition based model means that it only cares for how much the movie has made at the Boxoffice theatrically. It doesn't take parameters like budget,expectations,hype,promotions etc into account.

2. Multiplex share vs Single Screen share : 

Approximate All India Multiplex ticket rate is 125 rs and Single Screen ticket price is around 60 rs. Due to this disparity and also the fact the Multiplex owners probably spend a lot more to exhibit a single show of a movie compared to single screen owners leads to this point.(ie they might not actually earn good profits unless a movie performs upto certain standards for them).

Multiplex Ticket Price = 125 rs (Gross)
% Ent Tax = 15-18%
Nett Price = ~ 100 rs
Average share realization from Plexes = 42-45% leads to around 42-45 rs per ticket bought.

Analogous calculation for a Single Screen would be,

Single Screen Ticket Price = 60 rs (Gross)
% Ent Tax = 40%
Nett Price = ~ 36 rs
Average share realization from Single Screens = 60-65% leads to around 22-23 rs per ticket bought.

From the above its clear that a Plex ticket has a value which is 2 times that of a Single Screen ticket(approx).

For this reason, a Murder 2 doing 2.5 lakhs share per print is more impressive than Zindagi na milegi dobara or Cocktail doing 2.5+ laksh per prints (number of prints is different topic discussed below).

Ofcourse, it may not be possible to get very clear breakdown for each movie's plex and single screen share but usually its not hard to get a general idea of the business.

3. Market Penetration :

More prints mean that more people are running the movie in their theaters and that the movie is earning money for lots more people concerned. Thus this becomes another important factor to take into account.

Thus a Ra.One doing 2 Lakhs share per print from 3100 prints is lots more impressive than Dhobi Ghat doing 1.4 lakhs per print from 500 odd prints. (inspite of increased ticket prices or 3D costs...).

4. Not full proof but fits a certain perception based system in some ways :

Just like any other method based, this method might not be full proof but fits a certain narrative more often than not. For example if we go just by budget,hype,expectations Ghajini may not get as many points as say  perhaps Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi would. But in the theatrical model Ghajini is ahead which matches the popular perception of the said movies.

On the other hand though movies like My Name is Khan and Ra.One get decent to good points if we just look at theatrical performance without other parameters.

5. Standard Definition of a Blockbuster :

Going by the above factors, a de-facto Blockbuster would be one which

• Has a pretty wide release pan India > 2000-2500 or more prints.
• Has a high share per print from Plexes.
• Has very good share from Single Screens also

If there is any one of the above factors missing, then the movie has to really outperform in the other parameters to make up.

Examples of Winners

Multiplex Winners 

Zindagi Na Milegi Dobara , 1500 Prints , 2.6 Lakhs per print

Cocktail, 1400 Prints, 2.6 Lakhs per print

 Kahaani, 1100 Prints, 2.5 Lakhs per Print

Vicky Donor, 750 prints, 2.5 Lakhs per print

Don 2, 2750 Prints, 2.0 Lakhs per print

Single Screen Winners

Murder 2, 1000 prints, 2.5 Lakhs per print

Jannat 2, 1575 Prints, 1.5 Lakhs per print

Haunted 3D, 900 Prints, 1.4 Lakhs per print

Singham, 1875 Prints, 2.6 Lakhs per print

All India Winners 

Bodyguard, 2700 Prints, 2.9 Lakhs per print

Rowdy Rathore, 2700 Prints 2.7 Lakhs per print

Agneepath, 2700 Prints, 2.4 Lakhs per print

The Dirty Picture, 1775 Prints, 2.2 Lakhs per print

Share Per Print - 2012 Till Now.

Below is the Share Per Print for the major grossers/successes 2012.  

Interestingly the Average Share per Print has remained around the 2 lakhs mark as last year till now...
 

Worst Trending Movies of 2011 - Dhobi Ghat Tops

Share Per Print - 2011

Going forward we will be analyzing one more parameter of BO performance, Share Per Print.Here is Chart for the major grossers/successes of 2011.  

Average Share Per Print for the following movies came to around 2.0 Lakhs per Print.
 

Rowdy Rathore Lifetime Circuits Breakdown/Verdicts

Rowdy Rathore Lifetime Circuits Breakdown/Verdicts
Territory	Nett	Verdict
Mumbai	51.63	All Time Grosser 2nd Highest
Delhi/UP	24.41	Super Hit
East Punjab	9.71	Super Hit
Rajasthan	9.15	All Time Grosser 2nd Highest
Bihar	4.18	All Time Grosser 2nd Highest
West Bengal	4.27	Hit
CP Berar	8.70	All Time Grosser 2nd Highest
CI	6.11	All Time Grosser 2nd Highest
Mysore	3.46	Hit
Nizam/Andhra	5.46	Hit
Others	4.57	Blockbuster (4th Highest)
Total	131.65	Blockbuster

Rajesh Khanna Unprecedented Boxoffice Run : 1969-1971

1969
Aradhana - Blockbuster
Do Raaste - Blockbuster
Bandhan - Hit
Doli - Semi Hit

1970
Sachaa Jhutha - Super Hit
Kati Patang - Hit
Aan Milo Sajna - Super Hit
Safar - Hit
Anand - Semi Hit
The Train - Above Average

1971
Haathi Mera Saathi - Blockbuster
Dushman - Superhit
Maryada - Hit
Andaz - Hit
Amar Prem - Semi Hit

Jeetendra 1980-84 Phase Success

1980
Aasha - Blockbuster
Jyoti Bane Jwala - Hit
Judaai - Hit
Maang Bharo Sajna - Semi Hit

1981
Meri Awaaz Suno - Super Hit
Ek Hi Bhool - Hit

1982
Farz Aur Kanoon - Blockbuster
Jeeo Aur Jeene Do - Semi Hit
Dharam Kanta - Above Average

1983
Himmatwala - Superhit
Mawaali - Hit
Justice Chaudhury - Hit
Jaanidost - Semi Hit

1984
Tohfa - Hit
Maqsad - Semi Hit

Ek Tha Tiger Boxoffice Prediction

Salman Khan is riding high after the hat-trick of Blockbuster Successes in Dabangg,Ready and Bodyguard.

His Next Tentpole Event Movie is Ek Tha Tiger releasing on 15th August 2012.

Here is the BO prediction for the same.(based on the model of previous movies business and taking into account a decent to good WOM).

All India Nett Business :

15th August (Independence Day) : 25 cr
16th August : 16 cr
17th August : 14 cr
18th August : 15 cr
19th August : 16 cr
20th August (EID Holiday) : 18 cr
First 9 day extended week = 125+ cr
2nd Week = 25 cr 
3rd Week = 8-9 cr
Rest = 4-5 cr
Total All India Nett = 160-165 crore 
Distributor Share ~ 93 crore

Cocktail Business Dynamics

Production Cost : 50 cr Approx
P/P :11-13 cr
Total Cost for EROS/Illuminati Pictures ~ 62 cr.
Revenue
India Share = 40 cr
Overseas = 12+ cr
Satellite = 25 cr
Music/DVD = 5 cr.
Total Revenue = 82 cr.
Profits = 20 cr
Good Success for EROS and Saif Ali Khan.

Boxoffice Report 2011

A total of 131 movies released in 2011. 27 of those were success of some order(success rate ~ 20%). The List of Successful movies of the Year 2011 is as follows :

A movie needs to have a ROI(Return of Investment) of 0 or more, to be deemed a success.
The New Rating System is based on three “pillars” or barometers most widely used in Box-office Terminology.

1. Boxoffice Impact.
2. Trending.
3. Return on Investment.

Bol Bachchan Business Dynamics

Production Cost : 50-55 cr.
P/P :13-15 cr
Total Cost for Ajay Devgn FFilms – Shree Ashtavinayak Films ~ 65 cr.
Sold to Fox Star India for 90 cr.Total Cost for Fox ~ 92 cr.
Revenue
India(Conservative) = 52 cr
Overseas = 10 cr
Satellite = 35 cr
Music/DVD = 5 cr.
Total Revenue = 102 cr.
Profits = 10+ cr
Big Success for Ajay+Ashtavinayak and Good Success for Fox.