Wednesday, August 1, 2012

Theatrical Business Verdict System De-mystified.

1. Its a Exhibition based model :

Exhibition based model means that it only cares for how much the movie has made at the Boxoffice theatrically. It doesn't take parameters like budget,expectations,hype,promotions etc into account.

2. Multiplex share vs Single Screen share : 

Approximate All India Multiplex ticket rate is 125 rs and Single Screen ticket price is around 60 rs. Due to this disparity and also the fact the Multiplex owners probably spend a lot more to exhibit a single show of a movie compared to single screen owners leads to this point.(ie they might not actually earn good profits unless a movie performs upto certain standards for them).

Multiplex Ticket Price = 125 rs (Gross)
% Ent Tax = 15-18%
Nett Price = ~ 100 rs
Average share realization from Plexes = 42-45% leads to around 42-45 rs per ticket bought.

Analogous calculation for a Single Screen would be,

Single Screen Ticket Price = 60 rs (Gross)
% Ent Tax = 40%
Nett Price = ~ 36 rs
Average share realization from Single Screens = 60-65% leads to around 22-23 rs per ticket bought.

From the above its clear that a Plex ticket has a value which is 2 times that of a Single Screen ticket(approx).

For this reason, a Murder 2 doing 2.5 lakhs share per print is more impressive than Zindagi na milegi dobara or Cocktail doing 2.5+ laksh per prints (number of prints is different topic discussed below).

Ofcourse, it may not be possible to get very clear breakdown for each movie's plex and single screen share but usually its not hard to get a general idea of the business.

3. Market Penetration :

More prints mean that more people are running the movie in their theaters and that the movie is earning money for lots more people concerned. Thus this becomes another important factor to take into account.

Thus a Ra.One doing 2 Lakhs share per print from 3100 prints is lots more impressive than Dhobi Ghat doing 1.4 lakhs per print from 500 odd prints. (inspite of increased ticket prices or 3D costs...).

4. Not full proof but fits a certain perception based system in some ways :

Just like any other method based, this method might not be full proof but fits a certain narrative more often than not. For example if we go just by budget,hype,expectations Ghajini may not get as many points as say  perhaps Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi would. But in the theatrical model Ghajini is ahead which matches the popular perception of the said movies.

On the other hand though movies like My Name is Khan and Ra.One get decent to good points if we just look at theatrical performance without other parameters.

5. Standard Definition of a Blockbuster :

Going by the above factors, a de-facto Blockbuster would be one which
  • Has a pretty wide release pan India > 2000-2500 or more prints.
  • Has a high share per print from Plexes.
  • Has very good share from Single Screens also
If there is any one of the above factors missing, then the movie has to really outperform in the other parameters to make up.

Examples of Winners

Multiplex Winners 

Zindagi Na Milegi Dobara , 1500 Prints , 2.6 Lakhs per print
Cocktail, 1400 Prints, 2.6 Lakhs per print
 Kahaani, 1100 Prints, 2.5 Lakhs per Print
Vicky Donor, 750 prints, 2.5 Lakhs per print
Don 2, 2750 Prints, 2.0 Lakhs per print

Single Screen Winners

Murder 2, 1000 prints, 2.5 Lakhs per print
Jannat 2, 1575 Prints, 1.5 Lakhs per print
Haunted 3D, 900 Prints, 1.4 Lakhs per print
Singham, 1875 Prints, 2.6 Lakhs per print

All India Winners 

Bodyguard, 2700 Prints, 2.9 Lakhs per print
Rowdy Rathore, 2700 Prints 2.7 Lakhs per print
Agneepath, 2700 Prints, 2.4 Lakhs per print
The Dirty Picture, 1775 Prints, 2.2 Lakhs per print





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